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الگوهای Pesavento یا منطق فیبوناچی، به صورت عملی

الگوهای Pesavento یا منطق فیبوناچی، به صورت عملی

الگوهای Pesavento یا منطق فیبوناچی، به صورت عملی

اولین کسانی که ایده الگوهای هارمونیک را ارائه دادند، نظریه پردازان سهام همچون Larry Pesavento ، Harold M. Gartley ، و Scott M. Kearney بودند که رهبر همه آن ها خود Larry بود.

با این وجود کتاب Gartley با عنوان “سود در بازار سهام” (۱۹۳۵) ، با شرح مفصلی از مدل های کلی، مجموعه‌ای از متدهای تحلیل تکنیکال را متحول کرد و باعث شد تا نسخه های چاپ اول آن حتی با قیمت هایی بالاتر از یک اتومبیل فروخته شود.

الگوهای کلاسیک و اصلاح شده ی Pesavento ، هر دو بر اساس سطوح تصحيح فیبوناچی هستند ، لذا نقاط کلیدی بازار را با دقتی بالا در هر دارایی و بازه ی زمانی پیش بینی می کنند و در این فرآیند نیز کاملاً درجه بندی می شوند.

در حال حاضر هر کسی می تواند از این روش های معاملاتی رایگان استفاده کند و از طرفی اکثر اندیکاتورهای تکنیکال نیز می توانند الگوها را به طور خودکار روی جدول قیمت پیدا و ایجاد کنند.

به ادامه ی مطلب توجه کنید

خصوصیات الگوهای هارمونیک

مدل های هارمونیک با یک ترتیب دقیق، همگی در سطح استانداردهای Fibo ساخته شده اند. بیایید نگاهی به الگوی پروانه ای Gartley بیاندازیم ، انتظار می رود که فرآیند معکوس یک روند صعودی را طی کند.

حرکت اصلی قیمت – بخش [X-A]، (بعضی اوقات[A-0]) ، شبکه ی اصلی Fibo روی آن ساخته شده است. از نقطه ی A بازار باید اولین خیز اصلاح خود را به سمت بالا ارائه دهد، به طوریکه این فرآیند در ناحیه و سطح %۶۱,۸ (نقطه ی B) پایان یابد.

بعدی :

  • گردش به سمت پایین منجر به تشکیل بخش [B-C] می شود، اما هیچ موضعی را آپدیت نمی کند (نقطه ی A).
  • نقطه ی C در بخش [A-B] نباید زیر سطح %۷۸,۶ – %۶۱,۸ باقی بماند (در غیر اینصورت حالت تنظیم به صورت “deep” در نظر گرفته می شود و ممکن است الگوها لغو شوند)
  • نقطه ی D در محدوده ی %۷۸٫۶، و بالاتر از بخش [X-A] قرار دارد (به صورت بهینه- در سطح %۱۶۱,۸ – %۱۲۷,۲)، انجام یک چرخش برای ورود به بازار و رسیدن به نقطه ی فروش.

 

الگوهای Pesavento یا منطق فیبوناچی، به صورت عملی

نسخه ی استاندارد الگوی Gartley

این نکته را یادآوری می کنیم که اگر حالت تنظیم برای بخش [A-B] کم تر از %۶۱٫۸ باشد، احتمال ادامه ی روند فعلی زیاد است و ورود به بازار در نقطه ی D لغو می شود.

زمان تشکیل، مناطق الگوهای جدا از هم، باید تقریباً برابر باشند. البته اینکه آن ها بر اساس یکسری حدس و گمان تشکیل شوند، چندان جالب نیست (نوارهای ۲-۱).

ظهور الگوهای هارمونیک در یکی از اسیلاتورهای (MACD، استوکاستیک و RSI) با واگرایی همراه است. سپس احتمال معکوس شدن نیز در نقطه ی D افزایش می یابد.

الگوهای Pesavento یا منطق فیبوناچی، به صورت عملی

سیگنال های کلاسیک پروانه ای Gartley

مدل کلاسیک نیاز به تحقق یکسری شروط اصلی دارد [A-B] =[C-D] ، سایر پارامترها، بروز تغییرات را مجاز می دانند.

تنظیم بخش [A-B] ممکن است به سطح %۵۰ برسد و بخش [C-D] نیز روی %۶۱,۸ قرار بگیرد، اما برابری این بخش ها (با انحراف بالاتر از %۵) باید بر اساس ساختمان پروانه یا butterfly دنبال شود ( به نحوه ی استفاده از ابزارهای گرافیکی مراجعه شود).

مشکل اصلی الگوهای هارمونیک این است که مطابقت و پیروی ایده آل از پارامترها  در بازارهای واقعی به ندرت اتفاق میافتد. استفاده از برخی سازگاری های اضافی بین سطوح Fibo، امکان بکارگیری از الگوهای هارمونیک غیر استاندارد را فراهم می کند.

بیایید به بررسی برخی از جزئیات آن بپردازیم.

الگوهای هارمونیک بنیادی

یادآوری می کنیم که حجم تیک ها یا خط نشان ها، در همه ی مدل ها ( بدون در نظر گرفتن جهت) به یک شکل عمل می کنند:

  • حجم تیک ها در منطقه ی عملیاتی یا تکانه ی اول، رشد می کند و در اولین تنظیم خود به سطح متوسط تنزل پیدا می کند.
  • منطقه ی دوم : رشد با سرعت متوسط، در تنظیم دوم – رشد فعال همراه با نوسانات ضعیف.
  • پس از شکل گیری نقطه ی D – به شدت در حال رشد خواهند بود.

الگوهای Pesavento یا منطق فیبوناچی، به صورت عملی

الگوهای هماهنگ : سیگنال ها، اهداف، حجم ها

 

امروزه بیش از ۲۰ مدل هارمونیک در نظر گرفته می شوند. اگرچه بیشتر آن ها تغییر و تبدیل یافته از پایدارترین مدل ها هستند که در زیر نشان داده خواهند شد. تفاوت اساسی فقط در ارتباط بین موقعیت نقاط کلیدی است.

الگوی Pesavento

با ورود به بازار، توسط مدل های کلاسیک Gartley، می توان Stop Loss را در پشت ناحیه ی اکسترمم حرکت اصلی قرار داد.

اگر از گزینه های مرتبط با Pesavento استفاده شود، می توان Stop Loss را در پشت سطوح بعدی Fibo یا در سیستم مدیریت پول اتتخاب شده قرار داد. توصیه می شود تا از طریق سفارش های معلق وارد بازار شوید.

الگوهای Pesavento یا منطق فیبوناچی، به صورت عملی

نسخه ی استاندارد الگوهای Gartley – Pesavento

 

الگوی خفاش یا “Bat”

در قسمت ورود، Stop Loss در بالا / پایین نقطه ی ۰ با مقداری حاشیه تنظیم شده است. ممکن است هم با سفارش معلق و یا با توجه به قیمت بازار وارد شوید. اما در کل تأثیری روی نتیجه ندارد.

الگوی خرچنگ یا “Crab”

ویژگی های اصلی :

  • دامنه ی [C-D] دو سه برابر بزرگتر از [A-B] است.
  • نقطه ی B در مقایسه با [۰-A] کمتر از %۶۱,۸ نیست.
  • نقطه ی C، مربوط به بخش [A-B]، بالاتر از تنظیم %۸۸,۶ نیست.
  • نقطه ی D، بسیار بالاتر از قسمت پایین نقطه ی ۰ قرار دارد و در سطح %۱۶۱٫۸ از کل بخش [C-0] قرار دارد.
  • نقطه ی D در فاصله ی ۲۲۴-%۳۶۱,۸ قرار دارد که این مقدار مرتبط با بخش [A-B] نیز هست.

هنگام کار با چنین مدلی، معمولاً از Stop Loss ثابت که توسط سیستم مدیریت پول تعریف می شود، استفاده می شوند. البته این سیستم به بازه ی زمانی نیز بستگی دارد.

الگوهای Pesavento یا منطق فیبوناچی، به صورت عملی

الگوهای کلاسیک  «خرچنگ» و  «کوسه»

الگو کوسه یا “shark”

اساساً Gartley هیچ ارتباطی با این مدل ندارد، فقط در سال ۲۰۱۱ یک بار مورد تست و توجیه قرار گرفت.

این گزینه از الگوهای “۰-۵” است ، اما ورود در نقطه ی ۴ انجام می شود و به شما این امکان را می دهد تا در لحظه ی تشکیل بخش [۵-۴] به سود برسید، و بعد از اینکه فرآیند تشکیل، صورت گرفت مجدداً برگردید. سطح Take Profit معمولاً در اواسط محدوده ی [۴-۳] پیشنهاد می شود.

الگوی “۰-۵”

این مدل به دلیل اعمال برخی الزامات سخت گیرانه در جهت قرار دادن عناصر جداگانه  در معاملات، قدری دشوار قلمداد می شود. به ندرت در بازارهای واقعی تشخیص داده می شوند اما قابل اعتماد تر از الگوهای استاندارد هستند.

پارامترهای اصلی :

  • نقطه ی ۲، اکسترمم اول (نقطه ی ۰) را آپدیت نمی کند.
  • نقطه ی ۳ در سطح %۱۶۱,۸ – %۱۲۷,۲ از بخش [۲-۱] واقع شده است.
  • نقطه ی ۴ اکسترمم محلی را آپدیت می کند و در ناحیه ی %۲۲۴ – %۱۶۱,۸ از محدوده ی [۳-۲] قرار دارد.
  • نقطه ۵ (در مدل ایده آل) باید تقریبا در وسط نقاط ۳ و ۴ قرار داشته باشد.

فرآیند ورود، معمولا از طریق سفارش معلق و یا قیمت بازار صورت می گیرد. Stop Loss در سطح بعدی Fibo قرار دارد و هیچ قانون سخت گیرانه ای برای Take Profit وجود ندارد.

الگوهای Pesavento یا منطق فیبوناچی، به صورت عملی

 «۰-۵» و «۳ حرکت»، مدل های چرخش روند محسوب می شوند.

 

الگوی ۳ حرکت یا three movement

این مدل برگرفته از ۳ حرکت متوالی ماکزیمم / مینیمم است ( در تفسیر Linda Raschke ، الگوی سه سرخپوست) . روند معکوس در نقطه و یا حداقل در ابتدای یک تنظیم قوی رخ می دهد.

پارامترهای اصلی :

  • نقطه ی ۴ از سطح اساسی [۰-۱] به سطح %۷۸,۶ – %۶۱,۸ می رسد. با یک تعدیل یا تنظیم کوچک، به عنوان مثال، در %۳۸,۲، احتمال پردازش مدل، کاهش می یابد.
  • نقاط ۲ و ۳ به ترتیب در سطح %۱۶۱,۸ – %۱۲۷ از بخش های ۴-۱ و ۵-۲ قرار دارند.
  • بهتر است که نقاط ۱,۳ و ۵ در همان خط مستقیم قرار بگیرند. این حالت باعث افزایش سیگنال معاملات می شود.

نمونه هایی از اجرای الگوهای هارمونیک

انسان ها ذاتاً موجوداتی تنبل هستند، به همین دلیل از مدت ها پیش محاسبات و ساختارهای گرافیکی الگوهای هارمونیک به صورت خودکار اتجام شده اند. آپشن های مختلف از اندیکاتور ZUP را می توان به راحتی در وب یافت، این حالت به طور قابل توجهی روند حرکت تریدرها را تسهیل می کند.

معنای آن این است که ZUP، یک مدل را تعریف و ترسیم می کند. نقاط کلیدی (ورود، Take profit، Stop Loss) را نشان می دهد و اگر ارتباط بین المان های الگو از بین برود از نمودار فعلی حذف می شود.

الگوهای Pesavento یا منطق فیبوناچی، به صورت عملی

الگوهای Pesavento ( مثال ۱)

الگوهای هارمونیک در هر بازه ی زمانی ایجاد می شوند. اما ساختارهای موجود در D1 به عنوان پایدارترین موارد در نظر گرفته می شوند.

ظهور الگوهای قیاسی در چندین بازه ی زمانی، به طور همزمان، احتمال کارکرد سناریوهای استاندارد را به طور قابل توجهی افزایش می دهد.

الگوهای Pesavento یا منطق فیبوناچی، به صورت عملی

الگوهای Pesavento (مثال ۲)

ورود به بازار با یک سفارش معلق، در صورتی امکان پذیر است که تمام فرم های الگو به حالت ایده آل نزدیک شوند. در غیر این صورت باید منتظر بمانید تا نقطه ی نهایی شکل بگیرد و با قیمت بازار وارد شوید.

الگوهای Pesavento یا منطق فیبوناچی، به صورت عملی

الگوهای Pesavento (مثال ۳)

حتی الگوهای به ظاهر درست Gartly’s Butterflies یا Pesavento، ساختاری نسبتاً دشوار دارند، و از نظر زمانی کاملا متعادل نیستند و معکوس های واقعی را کاملاً تضمین نمی کنند.

به همین دلیل بهتر است Take Profit در نقاط ۰,۸ – ۰,۷ قرار بگیرد یا اینکه طی فرآیند Tailing، بتوانید Stop loss را بالا بکشید.

الگوهای Pesavento یا منطق فیبوناچی، به صورت عملی

الگوهای Pesavento (مثال ۴)

الگوها را می توان به عنوان استراتژی های آماده استفاده کرد. اما هنوز هم توصیه می شود که سیگنال های آن ها را با اندیکاتورهای اضافی، کندل استیک ها، و یا ساختارهای گرافیکی اضافی بررسی کرد. (نحوه ی استفاده از اندیکاتوردها را ببینید).

الگوهای Pesavento یا منطق فیبوناچی، به صورت عملی

الگوهای Pesavento (مثال ۵)

Gartley’s Butterfly همچنان قابل فهم ترین و محبوب ترین فرم هستند. از طرفی اثربخشی همه ی آپشن های مدل بسیار زیاد است به طوریکه تا ۸۵% معاملات بر مبنای این سیگنال ها، همگی با سود بسته می شوند.

معاملاتی که همراه با تسلط کافی بر الگوهای هارمونیک صورت گرفته، در کنار کنترل هوشمندانه خطرات موجود، همیشه دارای مزایای آماری فوق العاده ای بوده اند.

 

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